Take Air Force and lay the big points on the road at New Mexico.

To say that New Mexico is off to a horrific start would be a colossal understatement. Not only have the Lobos lost their first two games under new coach Mike Locksley, they weren’t even remotely competitive, falling to Texas A&M (road) and Tulsa (home) by a combined tally of 85-16! As you might expect, New Mexico was dominated in every possible way in those two games, getting outgained by a combined 693 yards, including surrendering an average of 547.5 total yards per game, with 198 of that on the ground.

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Now here comes Air Force and its tricky triple-option offense that gives every opponent fits – even ones that can play defense, which New Mexico clearly cannot. The Falcons routinely rank among the top five nationally in rushing yards, and this year appears as though it won’t be any different, as they’re putting up 367.5 rushing ypg, including averaging 5.5 yards per carry. Compare that to the Lobos, who have gained a TOTAL of 72 yards on the ground this season (1.6 per carry).

Air Force is coming off a tough 20-13 loss at Minnesota, but the Falcons actually dominated that game (which was played in a very tough environment, as the Gophers were opening up their new on-campus stadium). Air Force had a 10-3 lead entering the fourth quarter, but the difference in the game proved to be a fumble that Minnesota returned 51 yards for the deciding score. Still, the Falcons outgained their Big Ten opponent 386-327, including 261-108 on the ground; they had 24 first downs to 14 for Minnesota; and the offense went 14-for-21 (66 percent) on third and fourth down, while holding the Gophers to 4-for-11 (36 percent) on third down.

The Falcons have flat-out owned this rivalry, too, going 5-1 SU and 6-0 ATS the last six years, and that was when the Lobos were pretty competitive under old coach Rocky Long. Also, the favorite has cashed in six of the last eight meetings.

Granted, this is an inflated pointspread because of how poorly New Mexico has played to start the year, but I don’t mind laying it because the Lobos have shown no ability to score on offense or stop anyone on defense. And given the disparity in the two rushing attacks on both sides of the football, Air Force should control this one from start to finish. The Falcons are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games as a favorite, 4-0 ATS in their last four as a double-digit chalk and 8-0 ATS in their last eight against teams with a losing record, while New Mexico has failed to cover in four straight overall and eight of 11 as an underdog. Lay the price and watch the Fly Boys soar to an easy victory in Albuquerque.

7♦ AIR FORCE (based on a 1♦ to a 10♦ Rating)

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