Take the Astros as a road underdog at the Reds.

I know Cincinnati has been sticking it to Houston lately, winning six straight meetings (all at home), including the first two games of this series (capped by last night’s 5-4 come-from-behind win against Roy Oswalt). I also know that Houston rookie right-hander Yorman Bazardo was flat-out dreadful in his last start on Aug. 28 at Arizona, allowing eight runs in two innings of a 14-7 loss.

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Still, man for man, I’ll take Houston’s lineup over Cincinnati’s in a heartbeat (hence the reason the Astros are still four games ahead of the Reds in the N.L. Central standings). On top of that, who is Justin Lehr – Cincinnati’s starter tonight – to be laying this kind of price against anyone? He doesn’t have a quality outing in any of his last four starts, allowing 20 runs (all earned) over that stretch in just 23 1/3 innings (7.71 ERA). And that includes two starts against the weak-hitting Pirates (10 runs allowed in 11 innings vs. Pittsburgh).

Meanwhile, if you take away that awful outing at Arizona, Bazardo had given up a total of two runs and six hits in four outings (one start, three relief appearances) covering 9 1/3 innings. That includes his most recent effort on Friday when he struck out the side in one inning of relief work against the Pirates, helping Houston to a 9-1 home win.

Finally, since a seven-game losing skid at the end of May, the Astros have been swept in a series of three games or more just once going, and while they come into this contest having lost three in a row (one loss in Pittsburgh, two in Cincinnati), they’ve lost four in a row just once since that seven-game slide in May. Take the plus money.

(based on a 1♦ to a 10♦ Rating)

3♦ HOUSTON

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