Take the Braves on the run-line (-1½ runs) over the Marlins.

I don’t think Atlanta’s got enough time to overtake the Rockies for the N.L. wild-card, but Bobby Cox’s club sure as hell is given it the old college try. With Sunday’s 6-3, 10-inning victory over the Nationals, the Braves have now won six in a row (all on the road, mind you) and 14 of their last 16. Their last eight wins have covered the run line, and 11 of their 14 wins during their 14-2 run have come by multiple runs.

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Tonight, Cox hands the ball to his best pitcher, Jair Jurrjens. Even though his 13-10 record doesn’t suggest it, Jurrjens has been among the best pitchers in the National League this season. He’s got a 2.70 ERA overall, a 2.66 ERA at home, and he’s allowed just 176 hits in 200 innings with a 2-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio (140 Ks vs. 71 BBs). The right-hander has been at his absolute best down the stretch, too going 3-0 with a 0.82 ERA in his last three starts, and he’s allowed just 12 earned runs in his last eight starts covering 56 2/3 innings (1.91 ERA).

One of the reasons Jurrjens doesn’t have the wins he should have is a lack of run support (the Braves are averaging just 4.3 runs when he takes the mound). However, Atlanta’s been swinging some hot sticks lately (40 runs during their six-game road winning streak and six runs or more scored 10 times during their 14-2 run), and that figures to continue tonight against Florida’s Anibal Sanchez (4.72 career ERA against Atlanta).

Throw in the fact that the Marlins’ wild-card run for all intents and purposes is over, and we’ve got a motivational edge with Atlanta tonight, too. Lay the 1½ runs and watch Jurrjens lead the Braves to an easy win.

3♦ ATLANTA (-1 1/2 runs)

(based on a 1♦ to a 10♦ Rating)

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