Back Mississippi State against Houston.

Well, it didn’t take very long for the Cougars’ bubble to burst, did it? After those so-called program-changing wins over Oklahoma State (45-35 on the road) and Texas Tech (29-28 at home), Houston came crashing back down to earth hard last week at UTEP, losing 58-41 as a 14½-point road chalk! So long Top 15 ranking, so long talk of crashing the BCS party, so long Heisman Trophy hopes of QB Case Keenum.

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The fact of the matter is that Houston was never as good as everyone claimed it was – certainly, it wasn’t the 12th best team in the country, as the national pollsters would’ve had you believe going into last week’s game. Hell, the Cougars went from No. 12 to completely out of the Top 25 after that loss to UTEP.

Obviously, I don’t believe Houston’s going to gain re-entry today at Mississippi State, which has played much better than its 3-2 record. In the last two weeks, the Bulldogs lost to LSU 30-26 despite having four cracks at the game-winning touchdown from inside the 5-yard line with 90 seconds to play (and Mississippi State out-yarded LSU big time in that game, 374, 263, including 151-30 on the ground!). Then last week, the Bulldogs suffered a 42-31 home loss to Georgia Tech, but again they competed all day long and again finished with the yardage advantage (487-479).

What has me firmly believing that Mississippi State will close the deal today? Two reasons. First, the Bulldogs are playing at home for the third straight week and Houston is traveling for the second week in a row and the third time in four games. Second, and more importantly, is the fact that the Bulldogs’ strength (they rush for 205 yards per game, including 4.6 per carry) matches up perfectly with the Cougars’ weakness (204.8 rushing ypg allowed, including 5.3 per carry after allowing UTEP to run all over them for 305 yards and 7.4 yards per tote last week). On top of that, Mississippi State’s defense is much better against the pass (191 passing ypg allowed) than the run (145.6 ypg). Well, all Houston does is throw the football with Keenum.

Bottom line: This is a total flat spot for Houston (2-8 ATS last 10 road games), and I think the Cougars will take the field today in Starkville still hungover from that debacle at UTEP. At the same time, Mississippi State – long the doormat of the SEC – is seeing tangible signs of progress each and every week, and if they continue to play hard today (no reason to think they won’t), the Bulldogs will finally have a win to show for their efforts. After all, don’t forget, this is still a matchup of SEC talent vs. Conference USA talent.

5♦ MISSISSIPPI STATE

(based on a 1♦ to a 10♦ Rating)

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