Back Southern Miss as a hefty road favorite at UAB.

I know the Golden Eagles are coming off a hard-fought loss at Kansas (35-28) and go right back on the road for this Conference USA game. I also know that they’ll be without two of their big offensive weapons in RB Damion Fletcher and WR DeAndre Brown. Still, it’s impossible to forget what happened the last two years when these teams met.

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Back in 2007, Southern Miss whipped the Blazers 37-7 as an 11½-point road favorite, rolling up 456 yards (338 rushing) and allowing just 244 (65 rushing). Then last year, UAB went to Hattisburg, Miss., as a 7½-point road underdog … and got destroyed 70-14. In that win, the Eagles had 610 yards (463 rushing!) to UAB’s 223 yards (96 rushing), and QB Austin Davis went ballistic, completing 6 of 7 passes for 141 yards and a touchdown while rushing 10 times for 81 yards and five – FIVE! – TDs.

Davis is back under center at Southern Miss this year, and he’s been fantastic so far, completing two-thirds of his passes for 937 yards with eight TDs and just one INT (he’s also got 83 rushing yards and two scores). Davis guides a balanced attack that’s putting up nearly as many yards on the ground (208 per game) as through the air (237), and while Fletcher and Brown have contributed, they haven’t done it alone, as Southern Miss has a plethora of weapons. Tonight, those weapons face a UAB defense that’s a mess, giving up 35.5 points and 481 yards per game. That includes 544 yards and eight TDs allowed in last week’s 56-19 loss at Texas A&M as a 14-point underdog.

Yes, Southern Miss had an eight-game winning streak snapped at Kansas, but the Eagles are still 6-2 ATS in their last eight lined games. They’ve also cashed in nine of 11 on the road and nine of 11 when laying chalk on the road. Meanwhile, UAB has dropped three in a row SU and ATS, and even though the Blazers will be motivated to atone for last year’s 70-14 loss at Southern Miss, reality is, they don’t have the athletes to follow through. Throw in the fact that the Eagles have won all nine meetings in this rivalry this decade, going 5-1 ATS in the last six, and the only way to look in this one is to the favorite.

6♦ SOUTHERN MISS

(based on a 1♦ to a 10♦ Rating)

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