Take the Patriots-Bills game OVER the total.

Certainly, the series history between these teams suggests a lower-scoring game is in order, as the under has hit in six of the last nine meetings and 19 of the last 26, with both of last year’s games staying low. Then again, Tom Brady didn’t play for New England in either of last year’s contests. And neither did Terrell Owens play for Buffalo last season.

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The last time Brady was under center against Buffalo was in 2008, and the combined point totals in his two games against the Bills that year were 45 and 66, both flying over the posted number. And the last time Owens faced the Patriots’ defense was also in 2007 when he was in Dallas, and there were 75 points scored in that one (T.O. caught six balls for 66 yards and a TD).

More than anything, though, this play comes down to the fact that I believe the strength of both offenses is in the passing game, and I believe defense is going to be the weak link for each of these teams in 2009. And in order to win games when the defense isn’t a strength you have to open it up on offense and try to win shootouts. Needless to say, I believe with guys like Moss, Welker, Galloway, T.O. and Lee Evans running free in the secondary all night, big plays will be there for the taking in New England.

Finally, despite the fact this has been an “under” series recently, there certainly are quite a few “over” trends that apply to both teams. For instance, the Pats have topped the total in nine of 12 season-openers, four of five against AFC teams and six of seven as a favorite. The over was also 5-2 in Buffalo’s last seven road games in 2008, and each of Buffalo’s last five Monday night games have gone over.

(based on a 1♦ to a 10♦ Rating)

4♦ Bills-Patriots OVER the total

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