Take the Texans over the Jaguars in AFC South action.

The ONLY reason I didn’t make this a premium release is because I’m slightly concerned that this number is a trap. Because my power ratings say Houston should be laying AT LEAST six points. You may recall that I went against Jacksonville last week, and the Jags got completely outplayed in a 14-point home loss to Arizona as a three-point favorite. I said then and still believe now that Jacksonville is a team in turmoil with a coach whose players have pretty much quit on him.

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As it is, through two games, the Jaguars are putting up just 14.5 points and 300 yards per game, scoring just three touchdowns in 22 drives (and two of those came last week when trailing the Cardinals by 17 points). Meanwhile the defense has given up 22.5 points and 374 yards per contest, but it’s the Jags’ pass defense that has been alarmingly bad. Both Peyton Manning and Kurt Warner carved up Jacksonville, completing 81 percent of their passes for an average of nearly 280 yards. Well, now Jacksonville faces Houston QB Matt Schaub, and all he did last week was carve up a quality Titans’ defense for 357 passing yards and four TDs.

After a shocking home loss to the Jets to start the season, the Texans rallied from a two-TD hole to beat Tennessee 34-31 as a seven-point underdog last Sunday. That was their fourth consecutive spread-cover against an AFC South rival, and they’re now 7-2 ATS in their last nine games overall. And get this: Houston has cashed in 11 of 14 all-time games against Jacksonville, going 3-0 SU and ATS in the last four meetings at Reliant Stadium in H-town

Bottom line: QB David Garrard (5.7 yards per pass attempt; 72.7 QB rating) and Jacksonville’s offense, which has produced a total of 46 points in its last four road games, simply does not have the firepower to match points with Houston. Given the Texans’ dominance in his rivalry from a pointspread perspective, how do you not lay this very reasonable price?

3♦ HOUSTON (based on a 1♦ to a 10♦ Rating)

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