Play the Tigers and Justin Verlander on the run line (-1½ runs) against the Indians.

Obviously, this game means a whole lot more to Detroit, which leads the Twins by 2½ games in the A.L. Central, than it does Cleveland, which is dead last in the division (yep, even behind the Royals). The Indians have dropped 10 straight games, including the first two in this series by scores of 3-1 and 11-3. Going back further, the Tribe are 1-14 in their last 15 and 3-19 in their last 22 (3-8 at home).

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Included in Cleveland’s 3-19 freefall is five straight losses to these Tigers by the combined tally of 30-16 (with four of the five defeats coming by multiple runs). In fact, only four of Cleveland’s last 23 defeats have been by one run.

How does that trend not continue tonight against Verlander? Sure, the All-Star hasn’t been his usual dominant self lately, but he’s still 16-9 with a 3.44 ERA. That includes 3-0 with a 0.39 ERA in three starts against the Indians – he’s given up just one run on nine hits in 23 innings versus Cleveland with a 30-8 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Talk about unhittable! Even more impressive, the Indians still had guys like Victor Martinez and Grady Sizemore around for those three games.

If all that isn’t enough to love Detroit in this one, this should be: The Indians are going with rookie Carlos Carrasco on the mound. All Carrasco has done in three starts is give up 16 runs (15 earned) in 14 innings (9.64 ERA), with the Indians losing all three games by scores of 7-0, 11-9 and 8-5. That latter score? Yep, it came at Detroit on Sept. 1, when the Tigers touched up Carrasco for six runs (three homers) on nine hits in three innings. All Detroit and Verlander in this one and I’ll call for an 8-2 final.

5♦ DETROIT (-1 1/2 RUNS) - (based on a 1♦ to a 10♦ Rating)

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