Play the Twins on the run line – so plus-1½ runs – against the Yankees in Game 2 of their playoff series from the Bronx.

I expect a better effort from Minnesota, particularly offensively, in this contest. For one thing, they don’t have to deal with CC Sabathia tonight. For another, they won’t be running on fumes like they were in Game 1, which was played some 18 hours after the Twins beat the Tigers in 12 innings in that one-game playoff in the Metrodome. The players had all of Thursday and most of today to rest not only their bodies, but their minds, as well. They will be a totally different team from a “freshness” standpoint and should get some pretty good hacks in against A.J. Burnett.

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Speaking of Burnett, I just don’t trust the guy. While his overall numbers were solid, the hard-throwing right-hander still had periodic bouts with inconsistency, and with this being his first ever playoff start – in Yankee Stadium, no less – I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see him crumble (or at least struggle) under the pressure.

As for Twins right-hander Nick Blackburn, I admit he had his own consistency issues in the regular season, and this is his first playoff appearance, too. But at least Blackburn has some experience pitching in must-win games, as he made four starts over the final three weeks of the season while the Twins were desperately trying to track down the Tigers for first place in the A.L. Central. And the right-hander delivered all four times, going 2-0 with a 1.65 ERA over those four starts (Minnesota went 4-0). He also was strong in his final four road starts of the season (2.28 ERA, with Minnesota going 3-1).

So why take the 1½ runs with the Twins here and not playing them to win outright? Well, for one thing, we’re almost certainly going to see Mariano Rivera tonight for New York, and I highly doubt the Twins will hit him. But also, Burnett has faced the Twins three times since last September (twice this year with the Yanks, once last year with Toronto) and his teams won all three games, but all by a single run (5-4, 3-2 and 4-3). Also, three of Burnett’s last four starts were one-run affairs (the Yankees went 2-1). Finally, while New York has won all eight meetings with the Twins this season, four were decided by a single run, and two others were two-run games (including an extra-innings contest).

Bottom line: The now well-rested Twins have the kind of pesky offense that can manufacture runs all night, and as long as Blackburn delivers a six- or seven-inning solid effort, Minnesota – which gets its full complement of nine at-bats as the road team – will keep this thing within one run. Take the 1½ runs with the visitor.

3♦ MINNESOTA (+1 1/2 runs)

(based on a 1♦ to a 10♦ Rating)

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