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NFL Betting Strategy - 2025 (Thru Monday, 12/1)

By Al DeMarco - GM, Featured Handicapper

Not a free pick, but something more valuable....a discussion on betting strategy.

That little quirky trend I discovered some 14 years ago regarding SU Winners covering in the first 10-13 weeks of the season..,.well, here's your results from the 2025 season.

Please note I do NOT count Week 18 when teams tank or rest starters. By and large, the majority of Week 18 games have become meaningless exhibitions and they skew the results so dramatically.

SU Winners vs the Spread:
  • Week 1: 12-4 ATS (same record as 2024)

  • Week 2: 13-3 ATS (13-2-1 in week 2 in 2024)

  • Week 3: 13-3 ATS (16-0 in week 3 in 2024)

  • Week 4: 14-1-1 ATS (12-3-1 in week 4 in 2024)

  • Week 5: 14-0 (13-1 in week 5 in 2024)

  • Week 6: 11-4 (13-1 in week 6 in 2024)

  • Week 7: 13-2 (13-2 in week 7 in 2024)

  • Week 8: 13-0 (13-3 in week 8 in 2024)

  • Week 9: 11-3 (11-4 in week 9 in 2024)

  • Week 10: 11-3 (9-5 in week 10 in 2024)

  • Week 11: 11-3-1 (13-1 in week 11 in 2024)

  • Week 12: 8-5-1 (11-1-1 in week 12 in 2024)

  • Week 13: 13-3  (11-5 in week 13 in 2024)

  • 2025 Total: 155-36-3 ATS (81.2%)

  • 2024 Total: 211-41-4 ATS (83.7%)

How have dogs done?
  • Week 1: 7-9 ATS (3 outright)

  • Week 2: 7-9 ATS (5 outright)

  • Week 3: 7-9 ATS (4 outright)

  • Week 4: 7-9 ATS (5 outright)

  • Week 5: 9-5 ATS (9 outright)

  • Week 6: 8-7 ATS (4 outright)

  • Week 7: 5-10 ATS (3 outright)

  • Week 8: 2-11 ATS (2 outright)

  • Week 9: 9-5 ATS (6 outright)

  • Week 10: 9-5 ATS (6 outright)

  • Week 11: 7-7-1 ATS (4 outright)

  • Week 12: 9-4-1 ATS (4 outright)

  • Week 13: 10-6 ATS (7 outright)

  • 2025 Total: 96-96-2 ATS (62 outright)

  • 2024 Total: 111-140-3 ATS (69 outright)

  • I've repeatedly said there is value in placing a SMALLER wager on a pup - if that's your top play - on the Money Line if you're getting a significant take-back price (at least +140 or more) because 1) it's a smart investment and 2) over the course the season you'll find the dogs win outright around 30-35% of the time.

Now, let's break it all down a little more:

SU Winners vs the Spread - Prime Time Games Only
(their results are included above)
  • Thursday: 12-3 ATS (Favorites 5-10 ATS)

  • Friday: 2-0 ATS (Favorites 0-2 ATS)

  • Sunday Night: 11-1-1 ATS  (Favorites 8-5 ATS)

  • Monday Night: 17-0 ATS (Favorites 10-7 ATS)

  • Monday Night (7 outright MNF dogs)

  • 2025 Total: 42-4-1 ATS (Favorites 23-24 ATS)


    2024 SU Winners vs the Spread - Prime Time Games Only

  • 2024 Total: 54-10-2 ATS (Favorites 43-21-2 ATS)

  • Monday Night 19-1-1 ATS (Favorites: 14-6-1 ATS)
    (5 outright MNF dogs)

  • Sunday Night: 14-2-1 ATS (Favorites: 11-5-1 ATS)

  • Thursday Night: 14-5 ATS (Favorites: 11-8 ATS)

2025 YTD Results


Atlanta at TAMPA BAY (44')

By Matt Rivers, Featured Handicapper

The hardwood remains hot! Last night's college basketball 50 Dime Winner was Nebraska (-1') in their 90-60 blowout of Wisconsin. Nice and easy like I like them.

$10 bettors have now netted $14,942 in all sports the past 45 months.

That's wins minus losses with the vig factored into the equation.

Basketball has been even better as $10 bettors have netted $19,385 my last 158 releases the past 3 seasons.

Tonight another up-the-ante 50 Dime release once again in the NBA.

Already 11-3 in the NBA for the season, and tonight I make it 12-5 with this winner.

I'm 98-70-4 overall the past 56 weeks - no matter the sport or rating.

Another primetime NFL game is upon us, as tonight we have an NFC South showdown between the Falcons and the Buccaneers, and I will look to the Under to be the way to play this Week 15 opener.


Atlanta did not find the endzone on Sunday in its 37-9 loss to Seattle, that did play Over the total. The Falcons have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the posted price, but this game tonight just feels like an Under is coming.


Tampa Bay is averaging just 15.6 points per game over its last 3 games, and 2 of those 3 games have landed Under the total.


The first meeting between these division rivals back at the end of September did land Under the total, and 2 of the last 3 series meetings at Raymond James Stadium between these division rivals have landed Under the total.


Throw in a definite Under trend for these primetime games, both Sunday's Texans-Chiefs game, and Monday's Eagles-Chargers game held Under the total to push the primetime Under mark to 6-3 the past 9 primetime games, with 14 of the past 19 games overall since Week 8 of the season holding Under the posted price.


Let's stay Low in Tampa tonight in this Falcons-Bucs contest.


2* ATLANTA-TAMPA BAY UNDER