This is just too many points.
Indiana is rightfully the favorite in tonight's National Championship Game, but I don't see Miami getting blown out in this contest.
While they won't be listed as the official "home team" for this game, there is no denying the fact that this game is indeed being played in the Hurricanes' home stadium, and Miami will have the comforts of sleeping in their own beds, as well as eating and practicing in their home facilities.
Carson Beck did not win the Heisman Trophy like his counterpart, Fernando Mendoza did, but he has done everything his coaches have asked him to do. And that game-winning touchdown drive to clinch Miami's semifinal victory over a very scrappy Ole Miss team was a thing of beauty.
As usual, though, this game will NOT be about Beck having to outshine Mendoza; this game will be about the Miami defense setting the tone so that Beck can keep the chains moving, the clock ticking, and the football out of Mendoza's dangerous hands.
Miami only sacked Ole Miss QB Trinidad Chambliss once in its semifinal win, but it did have 7 sacks in its playoff opening win at Texas A&M, and recorded 5 more in its quarterfinal upset win of Ohio State. The fact that Miami's defensive coordinator Corey Hetherman coached the defense at James Madison for Indiana head coach Curt Cignetti for 3 seasons certainly gives the 'Canes a bit of an advantage when it comes to what Cignetti might be thinking in tonight's title contest.
Listen, I have watched Indiana this season, even had them as a 75 dime winner in their semifinal trouncing of Oregon. I know what they are capable of, and if this were a straight-up proposition, I would be inclined to back the Hoosiers to lift the trophy at the end of the night, but with the generous points, I cannot pass on backing Miami in their home stadium tonight.
Play the 'Canes plus the points.
40 Dime Winner on Ohio State
in the National Championship Game 2 years ago
- This is what I told you -
They have won 13 games in a row, and they have covered 11 straight wins, including ALL 3 in this year's new playoff format, but the clock will strike midnight tonight on Marcus Freeman and his banged-up Fighting Irish of Notre Dame.
It has been a tremendous run for Our Lady, but the reality is unless the Irish play their best game - and that might not even be enough! - they will not be close in tonight's Championship Game versus Ohio State.
The Buckeyes have posted 3 straight playoff wins and 3 straight playoff covers. Their top receiver Jeremiah Smith was limited to 1 catch for 3 yards in Ohio State's semifinal win over Texas, and yet the Buckeyes still found a way to beat the Longhorns by 2 full touchdowns.
Ryan Day's team also torched Oregon by a 41-21 score, and won its opening-round playoff game, 42-17 over the Tennessee Volunteers! 3 straight double-digit wins, so do not for one minute think that laying the -8 1/2 points is a little too much for you to part with in tonight's game indoors in Atlanta.
The Irish have been able to create turnovers, and create big-play opportunities on special teams - kickoff return for a TD against Georgia, and timely field goals against Penn State - and I don't see them drinking from that fountain again tonight against the buttoned-up Bucks.
The Ohio State defense will give the Notre Dame makeshift offensive line issues tonight and see to it that quarterback Riley Leonard does not get comfortable in the pocket. The Ohio State offense led by Will Howard - 73.9% playoff completion percentage, 919 passing yards, 6 touchdowns, and only 2 picks - will see to it that the vaunted Irish secondary will have to be on their toes all night long. I keep thinking about how the ND secondary struggled against USC and Louisville this season, and I see them struggling against the best passing team they will face to date.
It has been an impressive run for Notre Dame, but tonight they are simply in over their heads. I see the Buckeyes winning this game by at least 12 points if not more.
Lay it with THE Ohio State University tonight at Mercedes-Benz Stadium.
75 Dime Winner on Michigan
in the National Championship Game 3 Years Ago
- This is what I told you -
I am hitching my wagon tonight to the Michigan Wolverines to take this year's college football championship game both straight up and against the spread in this battle of unbeaten teams.
This is not a knock at all on Washington and their fantastic quarterback Michael Penix Jr., after all, the Huskies have won 21 straight games dating back to last year and they have gone 5-0 both straight up and against the spread the last 5 times they have been installed as the underdog, and that includes a 3-0 mark this season.
You are also familiar with the saying "defense travels" I am guessing, and that is the main crux of my analysis on the Wolverines for tonight's game at NRG Stadium.
Penix may rate the edge over Michigan quarterback JJ McCarthy, but Michigan owns the #1 scoring defense in the nation, and after settling in in their semifinal win over Alabama, the Wolverines' defense was indeed the difference against the Tide as they were able to generate 6 sacks on Jalen Milroe, and also able to snuff out the 4th and goal overtime quarterback draw from the 3-yard line that ended the contest.
The Michigan defense will be the difference tonight and don't discount the Michigan run offense also doing damage and limiting Washington's possessions.
The fact of the matter is the Washington defense is 54th in the country in scoring defense and 97th in total defense. Keeping that in mind, if the Huskies were able to pull off the upset tonight, it would be the first time since 2010 when Auburn and Cam Newton won the national championship with a defense that ranked outside of the Top 50 in both of those major statistical categories.
It has been a magical ride for this year's Huskies team, but it just feels to me like this is Jim Harbaugh's time. The Wolverines may have gotten into hot water with their elaborate signal-stealing scheme, but they have used that "us against the world" mentality to their advantage.
I was really impressed with the way the Wolverines did not wilt against Alabama and Nick Saban, and no disrespect to Kalen DeBoer and Washington, but if you can topple 'Bama, you can topple the Huskies.
Go with Michigan tonight for the win and cover.
