South Florida heads to Greenville on Friday night as a small road underdog against East Carolina, and I like the points to work with the Bulls in what shapes up as a defensive battle.

The Pirates have won the last three meetings, including a 48-28 victory in 2022, but that series history shouldn't overshadow the significant differences between these teams entering Friday's matchup. East Carolina is 4-4 and coming off a 17-9 victory over Temple, while South Florida is 6-2 after defeating UAB 30-10.

The Bulls' record deserves some respect, particularly considering they have been considerably more effective defensively than offensively. South Florida ranks 10th nationally in scoring defense, allowing just 14.5 points per game, and 25th in total defense at 306.6 yards per contest. ECU allows 24.1 points and 336.5 yards per game.

The biggest concern for South Florida remains the quarterback situation. Michael Van Buren left last week's game against UAB with an injury, and head coach Brian Hartline has not disclosed whether he will be available.

If MVB cannot go it will be Luke Kromenhoek came on in relief and provided a spark with 92 rushing yards, including runs of 42 and 25 yards, but completed only 7-of-10 passes for 39 yards. The Bulls generated very little offensively, but their defense picked up the slack, recording four sacks and forcing two fumbles that were returned for touchdowns. Defensive end C.J. Hicks was particularly impressive, producing a program-record four sacks.

ECU quarterback Mitch Griffis threw for just 130 yards against Temple, and the Pirates needed three second-half interceptions to secure their nine-point victory. Neither offense has been particularly consistent, which makes the defensive matchup especially important.

East Carolina is a different team at Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium, where the Pirates have been considerably more productive, and their three consecutive victories in this series deserve consideration, but the last meeting comes back in 2022, so I won't allow series history to dictate how I play this game.

South Florida's defensive numbers are difficult to ignore. The Bulls have allowed just 14.5 points per game this season and have surrendered only three offensive touchdowns over their last two victories. They also have the advantage of facing an ECU offense that averages just 186.5 passing yards per game and has struggled to generate consistent production.

I certainly do not expect a particularly attractive offensive performance from either side, especially with Van Buren's availability in question, but South Florida has the defensive personnel to keep this game close enough to give the visiting Bulls a real chance at the outright win come the closing minutes.

3♦ SOUTH FLORIDA

(Based on 1♦ to 5♦)